Possibility of a Global Economic Depression and Collapse of the Korean Real Estate Bubble in 2025 [2/2]

... (Part 2, following Part 1)

On the other hand, if new jobs were quickly filled due to the low-wage effect of illegal immigrants, and monthly new employment was strong compared to the unemployment rate, then if we start to stop illegal immigration, new jobs will likely decrease compared to before.

The suppression of illegal immigration since June, which was said to be very strong, could lower monthly new employment somewhat, while at the same time suppressing the rise in unemployment, which seems to be picking up speed, for a while. This is a policy decision that has some positive aspects.

Looking at the number of unemployed people above, we see that it peaked in July and has been lower since then, at least until the October data.

On the other hand, looking at the non-farm employment data in the chart below, we see a clear weakening around June-July. In reality, since it began to decline to less than 200,000 per month from April, it appears to have been cooling down since April.

Since then, they have been insisting that the temporarily low employment figures are due to temporary factors such as hurricanes and strikes. (?)

However, recently released regional employment data revealed that October employment plummeted to almost zero in areas largely unrelated to the recent hurricanes or strikes. This increases the likelihood that the decline in US employment since mid-year is a "trend" rather than due to hurricanes.

Let's look again at the trend graph of the number of unemployed and the number of continuous unemployment benefit claims we saw earlier.

Through short-term policies, the unemployment rate is being suppressed to avoid crossing the line that the market, as mentioned in the "샴의 법칙" (Sham's Law), is sensitive to. However, even this effect seems to be wearing off.

The number of continuous unemployment benefit claims, which often precedes the unemployment rate, shows no sign of easing, and the trend over the past one or two months shows a tendency to rise again. If this rises further, the unemployment rate will likely rise again with a time lag, and this will likely lead to a slowdown in consumer spending, which is still strong.

Well... let's consider another possibility.

Looking at the flow of these economic indicators since the beginning of the Trump administration's term, will they immediately boost the economy again even if the inflation rate rises?

However, listening to recent statements from the Trump administration's appointees, such as the information efficiency officer and the Secretary of the Treasury, their statements are surprisingly somewhat austere.

What direction will Trump and his economic cabinet decide to take at the beginning of his term?

If the Trump administration takes a stimulative stance even if the inflation rate rises again at the beginning of his term, the KOSPI index could reach 2750 points again next year, as Goldman Sachs predicts, even if the domestic economy is difficult.

However, conversely, if the Trump administration takes a stance of controlling inflation first, even if the economy remains stagnant for a while, and then resets and restarts, I expect the US to fall into recession soon after the beginning of next year.

However, looking at the recent flow of US market indicators, I think the latter possibility is increasing. And I wonder if Musk's words during the recent presidential election provided a hint about the early stages of Trump's term?

In the former case, the domestic KOSPI index may move within a box range next year and may be around 2750 by the end of next year, as Goldman Sachs says. However, in the latter case, starting in the first half of next year, the US recession will hit later than other countries, causing a global market downturn. If the latter scenario unfolds, I predict that by the latter half of next year, the KOSPI will be hovering around 1500 points or lower, not near 2750.

And if the latter scenario unfolds next year, I believe there is a high possibility that next year will be the first year of a full-blown global economic depression (long-term recession) and the start of a collapse of the domestic real estate bubble. Because it's about time it started.

The situation is leaning downwards, and if things go wrong, the 'main game of the Great Depression,' which has been frequently discussed since before, could begin to show its face starting in 2025.

Even if it turns out to be a long-term recession much later, the first year or so will naturally appear to be a common cyclical recession. It feels like it's coming a year earlier than the point we initially considered most likely.

Some time ago, I mentioned that if the won-dollar exchange rate strongly breaks through the 1450 won level and maintains its support, the possibility of the 2020s Great Depression having already begun will become very high. When such a trend is seen in the exchange rate, I expect the US stock market, which was like an aircraft carrier, will have already reached a long-term peak and begun to turn towards a multi-year bear market. Looking at the current trend, I think it's possible in the first half of next year, or even as early as the first quarter.