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Aspects Often Overlooked by Great Depression Theorists (Part 2) - Two to Three Years Ago
Post summarized by durumis AI
- By comparing the possibility of a long-term, sharp drop in the US stock market to the Great Depression of 1929, it predicts that the market will remain neutral until early 2026.
- After that, the possibility of a worsening US economy will increase from 2025, and the possibility of entering a long-term downward cycle will increase from 2026.
- In particular, if the global stock market faces the worst-case scenario around 2029, it is predicted that the real estate market could experience a prolonged recession until 2032. Careful consideration of long-term investment strategies is advised.
If we assume that a long-term, sharp crash in the US stock market will proceed similarly to the 1929 Great Depression and conduct a comparative analysis, we can make the following predictions.
If a similar long-term decline of about 34 months occurs by the end of 2028, the period from the end of 2021 to early 2026 will be left relatively buoyant. This is the "time lag" that I mentioned earlier, which other doomsayers tend to overlook. This is the section marked with a black highlighter on the chart.
This intermediate buoyant period shown on the chart below is approximately four years. While it might not be considered a long period, it is still quite lengthy. Even holding a single stock for over a year is considered "long-term investment rather than swing trading," so investors are usually impatient. If they hear "The Great Depression is coming!" repeatedly for four years without seeing any signs of it, they will naturally ignore such claims.
Although it's marked with a horizontal black highlighter in the chart below, those familiar with the fundamental characteristics of the stock market will likely anticipate that this section represents a neutral period where a major long-term crash hasn't yet occurred, and the market will continue to fluctuate up and down.
In previous posts, I have referred to this predicted period as a "large-scale cleansing period" or a "high-priced play (large box-range consolidation in a high-priced area) period" from a large-wave perspective.
What we can vaguely anticipate about the US economy during this period is that a trend of the US economy seemingly deteriorating but somehow persevering could be present for a considerable time. Reflect on and reconsider what you've seen in economic news and related videos about the US economy since 2022.
It's already September, so in a few months, it will be 2025. Time will unexpectedly fly by.
Since the start of high interest rates in 2022, many individual investors are excitedly anticipating the Fed's move toward interest rate cuts after a year-long pause. Is that the case...?
However, from my perspective of the technical and macroeconomic trends of the US stock market, I believe there is a slight possibility, increasing to a very high probability by 2026, of entering a negative long-term cycle.
The "main stage" of the Great Depression I've alluded to is after that neutral period marked in black. In other words, it's not the period of sustained high interest rates, but rather the point at which the period of sustained high interest rates definitively ends, and interest rates fall rapidly. (Although rate cuts are starting in September, I believe there's a high probability that instead of consecutive cuts, only a 50bp cut will occur, followed by a significant period of freeze before a further consecutive cycle of cuts.)
I pay close attention to the nuances inherent in the words I use. For months, I've discussed the long-term bearish outlook for the US stock market at this index level, but instead of using terms like "bear market" or "long-term crash," I deliberately used "long-term high point." This reflects my nuanced view that while further upward movement is unlikely, there's still some time before a major long-term decline begins.
Due to the long-term bull market in Nasdaq and the recent surge in excitement surrounding artificial intelligence, many believe that AI will propel the Nasdaq to even greater heights. As a result, many YouTube channels promote long-term investment in US leverage ETFs with high holdings in large-cap technology stocks, such as TQQQ and SOXL.
You can probably guess what risks I foresee with this investment strategy, considering my previous statements.
If, as predicted, the global stock market is in dire straits around 2029, the real estate market, due to its inertia, will likely experience several more years of downturn.
Therefore, I believe there is considerable merit to the theory that the real estate market could experience its worst cycle from 2025 or 2026, lasting until around 2032. This is a significant concern for those considering purchasing apartments.
This may seem like a far-fetched and unrealistic story to most, but I've presented it as a long-term topic for consideration during the Chuseok holiday. In an era of increasingly prevalent self-reliance economics, this issue is worth reflecting upon.
Ultimately, the decision rests with each individual.