Samsung Electronics Stock Price Plummets Again: Can it Find Support?

I just checked, and today's domestic stock market opened flat despite the US market closing flat yesterday, only to fall again.

The KOSDAQ doesn't seem to show a huge selling volume, but except for a few top market-cap stocks, most large-cap stocks are showing a collective downward trend, almost as if foreigners and institutional investors are dumping them simultaneously. In the KOSPI, the simultaneous decline of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, the top two market-cap companies, is noteworthy.

Because of this atmosphere, I recently wrote that the domestic stock market seems to be going in an ambiguous direction, hard to predict.

The domestic stock market is showing a pattern of further decline, while the US market, after seeming to reverse its downward trend, is now poised for further gains following Trump's confirmed victory. This creates a strange atmosphere where the US and Korean markets might not be synchronized for a while.

So, will the domestic market follow the US market, at least showing a firm flat trend while the US market continues to rise, or will it continue to fall independently? That's what was unclear.

Samsung Electronics is showing a decline of over -2%, recording a closing price of 53,000 won today.

Looking at Samsung Electronics alone, it's now entering the support range (53,000-49,000 won) that I mentioned before. While the situation is ambiguous from an index-centric market perspective, looking only at Samsung Electronics' stock price, it seems to be entering a range where at least some short-term support could emerge.

However, unlike before last week, while I had anticipated that if it hit bottom in this band, it would rebound and rise to around 80,000 won over several months or a year, my thinking changed after the US election. Even if Samsung Electronics hits 49,000 won and rebounds, it's probably best not to expect it to rise much beyond its recent high of around 60,000 won.

The KOSDAQ index seems to be proceeding as originally expected, after a brief pause during the US election period.

The KOSPI index below is showing a similar trend to the KOSDAQ.

Considering the support level of Samsung Electronics' stock price, I think the KOSPI index might also provide some rebound until the end of the year and the beginning of next year if it falls further from here. (Originally, before the US election, I had predicted that the index would fall below the early August low point before the end of the year, as shown in the KOSPI chart below) However, I believe it will eventually resume its downward trend.

The US market seems to be showing a trend where a strong short-term rally, centered around some narrowed group of stocks, will precede a reversal. However, the domestic market seems to be characterized by an atmosphere where, when a rebound occurs, one should quickly withdraw without high expectations.

As I wrote in my recent post, I believe that it might become necessary to withdraw completely from stocks and real estate for a considerable period, perhaps as early as the beginning of next year. I also stated that I foresee the possibility of the beginning of a long-term bear market in the US stock market. Of course, there will be opportunities in the stock market along the way. (But real estate, due to its illiquidity, is now considered extremely high-risk and should absolutely be avoided.)

Ultimately, judgment and response are the responsibility of each individual.