Crossover in Semiconductor and Secondary Battery Stocks [ft. Samsung Electronics, US EV Subsidy Abolition]

News that subsidies for electric vehicles and other eco-friendly initiatives, previously promised in the US, are expected to be reduced or eliminated, had a significant impact on the domestic stock market today.

Stocks related to electric vehicle secondary batteries and materials plummeted due to this negative news from the US. However, what stood out more was that Samsung Electronics, which had been continuously declining and dragging down the KOSPI index, experienced a sharp surge today.

As a result, both the KOSPI and KOSDAQ indices initially dipped due to the initial shock of the plunge in secondary battery-related stocks, but then recovered as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, the top two companies by market capitalization, rebounded sharply, closing the day near the break-even point.

Regarding the elimination of electric vehicle subsidies in the US, news is also circulating that Elon Musk, as the head of DOGE (Office of Government Efficiency), has expressed his support, as shown below.

As the article states, Tesla seems to be calculating that even if competitors drop out during the Trump administration, as long as the company survives, and if regulations on autonomous driving are relaxed during Trump's term, they can capture a larger share of the market from the next president's term onward.

This would likely be the most advantageous scenario in the long term for both Musk and Tesla.

Today, in the domestic market, while secondary battery-related stocks plummeted from the opening, the index recovered thanks to other stocks like Samsung Electronics, suggesting a positive short-term signal.

Considering the current positions of both indices, it seems that there is an attempt to support both the KOSPI and KOSDAQ around their lows from early August.

If foreign investors had intended to lead the market into a panic-driven further plunge, they likely wouldn't have allowed Samsung Electronics and Hynix to rebound so sharply.

Considering the KOSPI's trend, even if the Samsung Electronics share price, which surged over 7% today, declines again in the next few days, the 49,000 won price range, which is considered a support level, is more likely to act as a short-term support level.

However, if this support holds, it would only be a positive short-term trend. In the long term, it's not a particularly positive trend for the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets.

Before the US presidential election, I had anticipated that the KOSPI index would plunge sharply to around 1800 by the end of the year and then gradually rise next year. However, my view has changed; I now believe that the index will hold at this level for a while before declining next year.

I recently predicted that a full-blown Great Depression-level crisis could begin as early as early next year, and this view is an extension of that. If the market holds here, there's a high possibility that the KOSPI will approach 1,000 points by this time next year...

In any case, the main focus of today's domestic market was secondary battery-related stocks. As I mentioned in the previous post, I believe it's extremely risky to assume that this platform will continue until pure electric vehicles based on secondary batteries survive the Trump era (for example, by blindly holding them long-term).

Battery electric vehicles are the future of automobiles? I'm not so sure. I'm one of those who predict that if a cost-effective method of producing hydrogen is found during Trump's term, it could become an alternative, potentially causing the electric vehicle secondary battery industry to nearly collapse, except for the Chinese domestic market.

Naturally, if secondary battery materials and other electric vehicle-related stocks, which are heavily reliant on electric vehicle sales, don't diversify their revenue streams, they'll face a negative outlook during Trump's term.