- 파월 "인플레, 많이 개선됐다"...9월 금리 인하 예고
- 제롬 파월 미국 연방준비제도(연준) 의장이 2일(현지시간) 인플레이션(물가상승) 흐름이 긍정적이라고 평가했다. 다만 인플레이션이 연준 목표를 향해 지속 가능하게 계속 하강할 것으로 확신하려면 좀 더 기다려야 한다고
This post has been translated by AI.
Post summarized by durumis AI
- We are analyzing the long-term peak theory of the US stock market and the possibility of a second global Great Depression using artificial intelligence.
- Since 2022, the process of squeezing the peak of the stock price index has been underway in the overlapping technical long-term cycle endgame of the US stock market, and it is expected that control of the bond market will prevent a stock market bubble.
- With the advent of a strong dollar era, the possibility of an increase in the USD/KRW exchange rate is high, making the domestic stock market a very risky investment target. In the long term, we expect the USD/KRW exchange rate to rise to 2900~3100 won.
(Continued from the previous two parts)
Some time ago, through the following post, I wrote a bit of a "brain-storm" about why, at this particular time, the seemingly invincible US stock market is facing a long-term peak argument based on AI, and why it will lead to a situation that could be called a second global depression.
I've been thinking about the basic hypothesis for quite some time, and since 2022, I've been checking the technological trends and economic indicators to see if it's progressing similarly to that hypothesis, and looking at how it will proceed in detail.
And the actual situation in reality and the financial market seem to be still largely following this hypothesis.
This post is just another scratch on some other parts I'm thinking about.
Below is a monthly chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average's ultra-long-term trend from the late 1800s to the present.
The cycle's wave starting from 1932, the bottom of the Great Depression, the cycle starting during the era of hyperinflation in the early 1970s, and the cycle starting after the Global Financial Crisis... All these are overlapping, and the final game of a cycle that concludes an era started in 2022, as we have basically discussed on the Nepcon channel.
The final game of the overlapping long-term cycles of the US stock market began in 2022, and as of 2024, we believe that a 'game of squeezing out the peak index values and raising them a little more' is underway.
Looking at the US stock market based on the NASDAQ 100 index below, we see that the last small wave is in progress in terms of the game of raising the stock index, and even that final sub-wave is continuing stubbornly as an extension beyond the mid-May point, which we thought was the normal expected end point.
From this extension zone, depicted in red, the rise of technology stocks unrelated to artificial intelligence has stopped first, and the market is being carried mainly by a few Big Tech companies with no major valuation issues.
Of course, we believe that the stock index could rise 'very slightly' from here, but not individual stocks like Nvidia.
However, we don't think the NASDAQ index will far exceed its current level and enter a bubble phase like the dot-com bubble of 2000.
The reason we think this is that the bond market will soon control the situation to prevent the stock market from reaching bubble levels, as I mentioned earlier.
This control by the bond market means that we expect market interest rates to jump, making further stock market gains undesirable.
The day before yesterday, US market interest rates surged, especially for long-term bonds.
Yesterday, Chairman Powell's speech at the beginning of the regular session wasn't particularly special, but his positive tone, saying that things seem to be going well recently, albeit further confirmation is needed, caused market interest rates to fall slightly yesterday, and the stock market rebounded in relief.
However, the following news also came out yesterday.
News that Wall Street's big players have begun betting on rising long-term interest rates.
The news highlights that major Wall Street investment firms are preparing for a Trump victory, but I suspect the real reason is different.
I mentioned earlier that the US stock market seems to be continuing its extension phase.
Why? I suspect it's an additional move to "buy time." (Buying time refers to a narrow range-bound sideways movement or a slightly upward trend at a low angle).
Time for what? Waiting for market interest rates to jump to a level that threatens the stock market.
Recently, many people firmly believe that the US economy is heading towards a slowdown or recession, so they expect the Fed to cut interest rates, and market interest rates are also falling.
To make people question this expectation, how much would interest rates have to jump in the chart below?
When that kind of thinking starts to become clearly apparent in the market from some point in the near future, the short-term extension wave currently underway in the US stock market might end.
Therefore, although I think it will be short-term, I also think that a shock could occur in products like TMF (3x leveraged 20-year US Treasury bonds), one of the stocks that many foreign investors in Korea have recently bought.
Meanwhile, below is a monthly chart showing the long-term trend of the US Dollar Index.
Since this alone might not be very interesting for most people, let's add a simple trendline.
Below is the chart of the US Dollar Index with two trendlines added.
Those who have studied technical analysis a bit will probably have a feeling about this chart.
Since the US Dollar Index reflects the value of the dollar against the euro, it is similar to the EUR/USD exchange rate chart. However, if the US Dollar Index shows this kind of nuance, it is natural to assume that the KRW/USD exchange rate in our country, a small open economy compared to the US and Europe, would have some similarities.
Below is a long-term monthly chart of the KRW/USD exchange rate.
In early 2022, it passed the first important long-term point, soared to around 1450 won in late 2022, and is currently moving back and forth in the mid-to-high 1300 won range.
The nuance conveyed by the trend of the US Dollar Index is a "long period of strong dollar dominance".
It's a matter of timing, but when do you think we'll cross the next important point in the mid-1400 won range?
It's not for nothing that some people are saying, "The won/dollar exchange rate will go to 3000 later." My long-term forecast is in the 2900-3100 won range per dollar.
Compared to the US stock market, the domestic stock markets, KOSPI and KOSDAQ, are already lacking in momentum. There used to be some vitality, with cyclical trading even if the index didn't rise much, but that's not really the case these days.
The domestic stock market will be manageable as long as the KRW/USD exchange rate stays below the mid-1400 won range. However, if it goes above that, the domestic stock market should be considered a very risky investment.
Below is a long-term monthly chart of the KOSPI index.
Looking at mid-2021, when it hit 3300 points on the long-term chart, it looks like an "overshooting" section that suddenly went up.
- Due to upload capacity issues per part, it will be continued in part 4...