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Until a few months ago, there were frequent news reports about domestic investment institutions losing almost all their principal after investing in subordinated commercial real estate (mostly buildings) in the US and Europe. Lately, it feels a bit quieter.
The news below, from late July, covered the US commercial real estate market in the second quarter of this year. It reported that the continued high interest rates caused a prolonged slump in the commercial real estate market, leading to a record high in foreclosures—the highest in nine years.
Then, starting with the September FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve began cutting the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points, and continued with further rate cuts in November.
Although Fed Chair Powell hinted in a recent speech that they might pause at the December meeting, the general analysis among investment institutions is that the rate-cutting trend will continue into next year.
Therefore, the article from two weeks ago below reports that the US commercial real estate market, which is particularly sensitive to interest rate levels, is anticipating a rebound based on the Fed's current stance.
- 美 연준 금리 인하, 상업용 부동산 반등 가능성 시사
- 연방준비제도(Fed·연준)의 금리 인하가 미국 상업용 부동산(CRE) 시장에 긍정적 변화를 가져올 수 있다는 전망이 나왔다.7일(현지시간) CNBC에 따르면 웰스파고는 연준의 50bp 금리 인하는 글로벌 금융위기 이후 최악의 상업용 부동산 침체가 끝나가고 있음을 의미한다고 전했다.웰스파고 선임 이코노미스트 찰리 도허티는 "금리 인하가 만능 해결책은 아니지만, 덜 제한적인 통화정책이 상업용 부동산 회복의 기반을 마련하고 있다"고 설명했다.그는 "장기 금리 하락이 자본화율 상승 압력을 완화하고 부동산 가치 하락 속도를 늦추고 있다"며
Below are graphs showing the trend of the CPPI, a price index for commercial real estate (CRE) in the US and Europe.
In the US, the price, which had been continuously declining since around November last year based on the expectation that interest rate cuts would begin in mid-2024, has stopped falling. Since then, it has steadily risen slightly, and the index has stagnated for the past three months (August-October).
Either the effects of the interest rate cuts haven't yet been reflected in the CRE market due to a time lag, or the market is currently unresponsive to the rate cuts. It's likely one of these two.
US Commercial Real Estate Index, Source: Greenstreet.com
European Commercial Real Estate Index, Source: Greenstreet.com
The chart below shows the delinquency rate trend of CMBS (Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities) by commercial real estate type, periodically surveyed and provided by Trepp.com.
Generally, from past experience, the delinquency rate of a particular asset has been okay until it rises from the bottom to a certain level, but problems usually arise when it exceeds the 7-8% line. Beyond this level, the delinquency rate often increases at an even faster pace.
As seen in the chart below, the most problematic area is office buildings. This summer, the delinquency rate exceeded 7%, and this rate continues to rise rapidly as of the latest data in October.
Industrial real estate also shows a delinquency rate close to 7%, not a low figure, but its upward trend has been suppressed since the interest rate cuts. In contrast, the upward trend of the office building delinquency rate is still continuing.
Based on this trend, if the Federal Reserve continues to aggressively cut interest rates, other types of real estate might be able to be contained before the situation escalates. However, I get the feeling that office buildings (buildings) may have already tipped toward a slump and may not recover even with continued rate cuts, unless the cuts are as rapid as consecutive big cuts.
Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) Delinquency Rate in October 2024 (Source: Trepp.com)
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