If this trajectory continues, a US-originated economic/financial Great Depression will have already begun.

If a full-blown Great Depression cycle begins this year, I believe it will be a deliberately orchestrated flow "by US finance".

The US-China power struggle, or US hegemony, or "shearing the sheep"... everything is intertwined in this picture.

The long-term upward cycle of the US stock market index, which began in March 2009, immediately after the global financial crisis, likely reached its peak sometime between November and December last year.

Now, the question is whether the downward trend will begin in January and continue through the first half of the year, or whether it will continue in a narrow range before beginning in the second half of the year around this summer. That's the crossroads we seem to be at.

If it starts in January as it currently appears, and the US stock market (S&P 500) follows a trajectory similar to the one below, I personally believe that "the game has begun" with a very high probability.

If the US stock market follows this trajectory in the first half of the year, I believe the won-dollar exchange rate will easily surpass the previous high of 1487 won, which many people recently thought "would surely not be exceeded." This could happen as early as January.

And perhaps around the time, or slightly before, the won-dollar exchange rate charts this upward trend, we will see a closing price drop below the index band (by Trump trade) built on top of the existing structure after the US presidential election in November of last year.

Furthermore, if the recent US market trend, which shifted from concerns about employment slowdown to inflation concerns due to Powell's statements, reverts back to employment slowdown concerns, it would further increase the likelihood of this scenario.

I have been continuously emphasizing that a long-term risk may begin. This is because most of the indicators I am closely watching are converging recently.

If the trends I have been discussing recently overlap, from the current point onwards, at least index-related ETF products (QQQ, SPY, TQQQ, SOXL, etc.) are entering a period where, even if you try to "buy the dip" after a significant drop, holding them long-term is extremely risky.

If the US stock market and financial market indicators soon show this trend, it means that it's already too late to respond to the already severely shrinking South Korean real estate market (apartments).